Ben Buckman.net

I read a lot of political news and commentary, and I tend to have opinions about most of it. On the huge issues of the day, though, I have to admit I lack the expertise to adequately judge. How do I know if the stimulus will really work? Or if bailing out the banks is really a good idea? Or if ultimately the tradeoffs of universal healthcare will be better than the tradeoffs of the status quo?

One principle that's at the forefront of my mind, however, is the following: the Obama administration is staffed with some of the smartest people in their fields in the country. They're riding a huge wave of political capital in incredibly troubled times. They have absolutely no incentive to fail and every incentive to succeed spectacularly. They have the political capital to try almost anything now that they think will work. They know their first-term legacy will depend largely on economic recovery (as well as success in all their other endeavors).

Opposing whatever this team proposes is a party in exile, in decline, touting heroes and principles from the 1980s, losing its moderate base to the mainstream, shifting further and further to the extremes. They don't have the resources or the brains to figure out the best solutions, and out of power, they have nothing to gain from genuine recovery. Obama's success will be the last nail in their political coffins, and they have every reason to want him to fail.

Common sense tells me that the former group is much more likely to be right. They want to be right, they need to be right, they have the brains to get it right. If they can't pull it off, no one can, so I'm going to trust them (for the forseeable future) and hope they succeed.