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Dec 23 '09 9:50am

The Long View

Andrew Sullivan predicts the impact of the HCR bill on Obama's approval rating (assuming it passes the conference):

I don't think this is about a short term five point bump. Here's what has happened: a liberal Democratic president has just passed universal health insurance. No Democratic president has done something like that since Johnson. It is designed to show that government can do something real and tangible for the working poor. And in that respect, its impact on the political culture will be deep and lasting, unless the opposition can stop it, demonize it, or jump up and down enough to make it seem as if Obama is out of step with the times rather than them.

My suspicion is that they will fail in the end to achieve this; and that this new landmark for liberalism will reorient American politics the way Reagan's first year did - profoundly. I may be wrong and I will be accountable for this judgment. But the age demands government action. And Obama is doing as much of it as consensually and as civilly but as ruthlessly as he can.

Why so pragmatic and centrist? Because he wants it all to last.

Dec 13 '09 6:32pm

Health care reform: the case for pilot programs, not a master plan

I just finished reading Better by Dr. Atul Gawande. It's a meditation on the challenges facing medicine on all levels: the stakes and concerns of a doctor, the expectations of society, eradication of diseases around the world. In exploring how doctors and medicine gets better, he writes truths that apply to most human endeavors: that results, as much as we don't like to admit it, are graded on a bell curve; that change is difficult; that perfection is usually impossible, that "good enough" is never good enough; but improvement is always possible.

His arguments about medical malpractice are persuasive: even doctors recognize that mistakes happen and sometimes patients deserve compensation for them, but that the way such compensation is determined (and its effects on the system as a whole) is perverse. He focuses on the local and individual level: medicine improves more by sharing knowledge, learning from results, and developing skills than from buying the latest technology or the latest brand-name drugs. (The case stories of doctors improvising in India drive those points home.) 

The book doesn't deal with health care reform directly, but his ideas lend a lot to the reform conversation. More directly to the issue of reform is his piece in the latest issue of the New Yorker, about the hodgepodge of pilot programs which have received so much criticism (for lacking a money-saving silver bullet). He brings in the history of American agriculture as a case study: in the early 20th century, costs were rising, production was stalling, a crisis was looming, and the government worked with the farmers, starting with hundreds of pilot programs, to turn it around. Some excerpts from the article:

The history of American agriculture suggests that you can have transformation without a master plan, without knowing all the answers up front. Government has a crucial role to play here—not running the system but guiding it, by looking for the best strategies and practices and finding ways to get them adopted, county by county. Transforming health care everywhere starts with transforming it somewhere. But how?

To figure out how to transform medical communities, with all their diversity and complexity, is going to involve trial and error. And this will require pilot programs—a lot of them.

Pick up the Senate health-care bill—yes, all 2,074 pages—and leaf through it. Almost half of it is devoted to programs that would test various ways to curb costs and increase quality. The bill is a hodgepodge. And it should be.

The bill tests, for instance, a number of ways that federal insurers could pay for care. ... There is a pilot program to increase payments for doctors who deliver high-quality care at lower cost, while reducing payments for those who deliver low-quality care at higher cost. There’s a program that would pay bonuses to hospitals that improve patient results after heart failure, pneumonia, and surgery. There’s a program that would impose financial penalties on institutions with high rates of infections transmitted by health-care workers. Still another would test a system of penalties and rewards scaled to the quality of home health and rehabilitation care.

Other experiments try moving medicine away from fee-for-service payment altogether. ... The bill has ideas for changes in other parts of the system, too. Some provisions attempt to improve efficiency through administrative reforms, by, for example, requiring insurance companies to create a single standardized form for insurance reimbursement, to alleviate the clerical burden on clinicians. There are tests of various kinds of community wellness programs. The legislation also continues a stimulus-package program that funds comparative-effectiveness research—testing existing treatments for a condition against one another—because fewer treatment failures should mean lower costs.

There are hundreds of pages of these programs, almost all of which appear in the House bill as well. But the Senate reform package goes a few U.S.D.A.-like steps further. It creates a center to generate innovations in paying for and organizing care. It creates an independent Medicare advisory commission, which would sort through all the pilot results and make recommendations that would automatically take effect unless Congress blocks them. It also takes a decisive step in changing how insurance companies deal with the costs of health care. ... 

Which of these programs will work? We can’t know. That’s why the Congressional Budget Office doesn’t credit any of them with substantial savings. ... But, in the end, it contains a test of almost every approach that leading health-care experts have suggested. (The only one missing is malpractice reform. This is where the Republicans could be helpful.) None of this is as satisfying as a master plan. But there can’t be a master plan. That’s a crucial lesson of our agricultural experience. And there’s another: with problems that don’t have technical solutions, the struggle never ends.

Cynicism about government can seem ingrained in the American character. It was, ironically, in a speech to the Future Farmers of America that President Ronald Reagan said, “The ten most dangerous words in the English language are ‘Hi, I’m from the government, and I’m here to help.’” Well, [Athens, OH agricultural extension agent] Lewandowski is from the government, and he’s here to help. And small farms in Athens County are surviving because of him. What he does involves continual improvisation and education; problems keep changing, and better methods of managing them keep emerging—as in medicine.

Getting our medical communities, town by town, to improve care and control costs isn’t a task that we’ve asked government to take on before. But we have no choice. At this point, we can’t afford any illusions: the system won’t fix itself, and there’s no piece of legislation that will have all the answers, either. The task will require dedicated and talented people in government agencies and in communities who recognize that the country’s future depends on their sidestepping the ideological battles, encouraging local change, and following the results. But if we’re willing to accept an arduous, messy, and continuous process we can come to grips with a problem even of this immensity. We’ve done it before.

Full article here.

Nov 8 '09 12:29am

Health Care Perspective

It's easy to find flaws in any bill the magnitude of the health care reform legislation just passed in the House. But let's not forget:

The House bill would extend insurance coverage to 36 million uncovered Americans and guarantee that 96 percent of Americans have coverage, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

Among other things, the bill would subsidize insurance for poorer Americans, establish a new government-run public option and create health insurance exchanges to make it easier for small groups and individuals to purchase coverage. It would also cap annual out-of-pocket expenses and prevent insurance companies from denying coverage for pre-existing conditions.

Pelosi's office has said the bill would cut the federal deficit by roughly $30 billion over the next decade. The measure is financed through a combination of a tax surcharge on wealthy Americans and spending constraints in Medicare and Medicaid. 

Policies in the exchange won't be able to deny coverage for "preexisting conditions." Far fewer people will go bankrupt or lose their homes when they get sick; hundreds of thousands of people that die every year because they lack health insurance, will live. The rest is details.

Oct 29 '09 11:57am

Health Reform Video Challenge

The OFA's Health Reform Video Challenge finalists are in, and some of them are really good. Go watch them all and vote on them here. These were my favorites.

Most creative (and best overall, but maybe too clever/indirect for a tv ad):


Most powerful:


Most ironic:


Check them out and vote for yourselves!

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